Editor-in-chief

Prof. Paul Sudnik

Munich University of Applied Sciences, Germany

As the Editor-in-Chief of IJSSH, I invite you to contribute your scholarly work to our esteemed publication. The journal publishes papers which focus on the advanced researches in the field of all aspects of social science and humanity. I'll endeavour to make this journal grow better and hopefully it will become a recognized journal among researchers and scholars in related fields.

Home > Archive > 2025 > Volume 15, Number 2, 2025
IJSSH 2025 Vol.15(2): 89-94
doi: 10.18178/ijssh.2025.15.2.1247

Comparison of Population Prediction Accuracy of Different Forecasting Models in the Yangtze River Delta

Tianyi Wei
The University of London, London, United Kingdom
Email: zcahtwe@ucl.ac.uk

Manuscript received January 9, 2025; accepted February 13, 2025; published April 25, 2025.

Abstract—Prediction is an important aspect of modern scientific management. Accurate predictions can help decision-makers make the right decisions and improve the quality of their choices. This article studied the temporal evolution of the population in the Yangtze River Delta from 1990 to 2019 by using three grey models namely GM (1,1) model, GM (2,1) model, and DGM (2,1) model. It evaluated the fitting accuracy of different models for population prediction in the Yangtze River Delta using residual error test and posterior error test. The results showed that GM (1,1) fit well the most since the population growth rate in the Yangtze region is primarily time-homogeneous.

Keywords—China’s demographic prediction, forecasting and simulation, models and applications

Cite: Tianyi Wei, "Comparison of Population Prediction Accuracy of Different Forecasting Models in the Yangtze River Delta," International Journal of Social Science and Humanity, vol. 15, no. 2, pp. 89-94, 2025.

Copyright © 2025 by the authors. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).
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